Tether’s Paolo Ardoino warns an AI bubble could hit Bitcoin in 2026 but says deeper crashes are unlikely as institutional demand and RWA tokenization grow.
Summary
- Paolo Ardoino says a bursting AI bubble in U.S. equities is Bitcoin’s main 2026 risk due to ongoing correlation with capital markets.
- He does not expect new 80% drawdowns, citing growing holdings by pension funds, governments and long-term investors reshaping Bitcoin’s supply.
- Ardoino backs real-world asset tokenization, criticizes Europe’s MiCA regime, and warns crypto treasury firms must build real operating businesses.
Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said a potential bubble forming around artificial intelligence could affect Bitcoin markets by 2026, while expressing continued confidence in the cryptocurrency’s longer-term prospects.
Bitcoin and Tether?
Speaking Thursday on the Bitcoin Capital podcast, co-hosted by Bitfinex Securities and Blockstream, Ardoino said Bitcoin remains more closely tied to traditional capital markets than many investors expect. That connection could leave the asset vulnerable if volatility in U.S. equities, particularly around AI investments, increases, according to the executive.
“That is the so-called AI bubble,” Ardoino said, referring to what he characterized as aggressive spending by AI companies. He cited massive investments in data centers, power generation and graphics processing units as signs that capital is being deployed at a pace that may not be sustainable.
Ardoino suggested that if sentiment around artificial intelligence shifts sharply, resulting turbulence in U.S. stock markets could weigh on Bitcoin prices. While Bitcoin is often marketed as an uncorrelated asset, it still trades in line with broader risk appetite during periods of stress, he said.
In a scenario where AI enthusiasm cools in 2026, Bitcoin would likely experience secondary effects from equity market volatility, Ardoino stated. However, the executive said he does not expect Bitcoin to repeat the dramatic collapses of previous cycles.
“So I would imagine that sharp corrections of 80%, like we saw in 2022 or early 2018, might not be the case anymore,” Ardoino said. He attributed this view to growing participation from pension funds, governments and other long-term holders, which he said has altered Bitcoin’s supply dynamics and reduced the likelihood of panic-driven selloffs.
Beyond Bitcoin, Ardoino expressed confidence in the future of real-world asset tokenization. Tokenized securities and commodities are positioned to become a significant part of the crypto industry’s next phase, particularly as traditional financial institutions explore blockchain-based issuance and settlement, he said.
The executive cautioned against excessive institutional dominance within Bitcoin itself. “Bitcoin is for Bitcoin, right?” Ardoino said, adding that he would not want to see the asset become overwhelmingly controlled by institutions.
Ardoino offered a critical assessment of Europe’s role in the cryptocurrency sector, arguing that the region continues to lag behind other markets due to restrictive regulation and a lack of innovation.
“I’m very bearish on Europe,” Ardoino said, criticizing European policymakers for attempting to regulate technologies they do not yet fully understand. He specifically pointed to the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), which has intensified debate over centralized oversight and compliance requirements.
Tether has declined to align its flagship stablecoin with MiCA, a stance that has led several European crypto asset service providers to delist the token. Ardoino framed this as an example of how regulation could push innovation away from the region.
The executive also expressed reservations about the growing number of crypto-focused treasury companies whose primary strategy is holding digital assets. Such firms risk lacking long-term value if they do not build meaningful operating businesses alongside their treasuries, he said.
“I think that you want a treasury company to have an amazing operational business,” Ardoino stated. He pointed to the Tether-backed Bitcoin company Twenty One as an example of a more balanced approach, describing the goal as becoming a full-fledged Bitcoin services company while maintaining a large Bitcoin treasury, rather than relying solely on asset accumulation.
